拉菲泡沬
2010年12月23日
我公司廠房位於廣東省偏遠地方，當地民風較純樸，包括政府官員作風，但最近我留意到橫掃中國的拉菲旋風已殺到當地，連我以為是較純樸的官員也拉菲不離口。拉菲是法國一級酒莊 Chateau Lafite，近年成為內地最受歡迎紅酒品牌，拉菲旋風威力強大，價格短時間內急升，全球紅酒界為之側目。拉菲在內地被喻為液體黃金，除了用來炫耀，最近更成為炒賣工具。內地傳媒熱門話題是，天價拉菲能否持久下去？拉菲旋風是否泡沫？拉菲價格過去半年平均升幅五成，過去幾年升幅更以倍計，遠超於這段時間全球紅酒市場升幅。拉菲售價的瘋狂程度，已到了副牌酒（內地稱小拉菲）的售價，高於部分同年份一級酒莊的主牌酒。
預測泡沫不是易事，前美國聯儲局主席格林斯潘有句名言，泡沫爆破之前不容易確立泡沫的存在。格老當然有他的智慧，看到泡沫存在是一回事，預測泡沫幾時爆破是另一回事；泡沫可存在一段長時間，跟泡沫鬥氣能令人傾家蕩產。因此，指出拉菲旋風是泡沫而不提供爆破時間的預測，屬講完等於冇講，猶如賭枱上連開十鋪大，閣下以肯定語氣指不可能永遠開大——所有人都知不會永遠開大，但下一鋪開大還是開小？
世上沒有無緣無故的泡沫，泡沫的成因必定源自一件大事，而市場人士對這大事有不同看法；泡沫=大事+爭拗。套入這方程式，誘發拉菲泡沫的大事是中國經濟起飛，內地人開始選擇高級消費品，爭拗是拉菲一枝獨秀所產生的現象未必合理。
很多人分析拉菲在內地特別成功的原因，是這個中文名改得好，又高貴秀麗，又容易上口，其他一級酒莊的中文名不容易上口，其中 Chateau Latour的中文名是拉圖，音近「拉倒」，對內地人來說不大吉利。拉菲酒莊早一步進入內地市場，已做了許多市場推廣工作，例如最近宣布把 08年年份的酒牌寫上中文「八」字，對準內地人心理。這一切或者可解釋為何拉菲相對其他一級酒莊存在溢價，但現在溢價之大，到了難以解釋的地步。
泡沫形成的時候，好友和淡友各持己見，不過好友較為佔有優勢，是他們較齊心，一致看好，大家一齊買，愈買愈升，愈升愈買。相反，淡友通常不夠齊心，有些只出口，不出手，選擇不參與這場瘋狂遊戲，站在場邊觀看，不加入沽空行列。有很多泡沫根本沒有太多沽空的工具，例如拉菲的淡友要付諸行動不容易。好友用行動，淡友靠把口，這場實力懸殊的比賽勝負相當明顯。
泡沫形成之後會出現一個循環現象，好友賺了錢，令他們對自己的信念更堅定，更加相信自己做的事是對，因為賺錢是最好的證明，會更加興高采烈投入，然後再賺錢，形成一個循環。拉菲價格過去幾年未跌過，好友在金融海嘯也絲毫無損，至今沒有人買拉菲而輸錢，這循環運作良好。要泡沫爆破必須打破這循環，先要找出最弱的一點。
我認為其中的一個弱點是，內地人對紅酒認識開始增加，不再盲目跟風，一窩蜂追捧單一品牌。隨着內地人對紅酒愈來愈有興趣，他們會愈來愈懂得關於紅酒的事物，不過這過程需要很長時間累積。我肯定絕大部分現時飲用或炒賣拉菲的內地人對紅酒認識不深，一是只知道它是身份象徵，一是只知道它的價格不斷上漲，其他的不管。短期內，因為知識導致泡沫爆破的機會不大。
另一個弱點是冒牌貨，一兩蚊的雞蛋有冒牌，幾萬元一瓶的紅酒當然不在話下。我相信 82年拉菲在內地的存量，應該是拉菲酒莊 82年產量的幾倍。不過，這弱點其實跟以上關於紅酒知識有關，內地人根本分不出真假，況且是真是假分別不大，最重要是要花費幾萬元一瓶，開瓶時主人家有面子，飲完之後是假又如何。
我看不到拉菲泡沫短期內爆破，極其量是升幅放緩。反而我認為一個較有可能的現象，是拉菲跟其他一級酒莊價格的溢價逐漸收窄，這並不是指拉菲跌價，而是其他一級酒價格升。升邊隻？睇佢個中文名能否討得內地人歡心。
預測泡沫不是易事，前美國聯儲局主席格林斯潘有句名言，泡沫爆破之前不容易確立泡沫的存在。格老當然有他的智慧，看到泡沫存在是一回事，預測泡沫幾時爆破是另一回事；泡沫可存在一段長時間，跟泡沫鬥氣能令人傾家蕩產。因此，指出拉菲旋風是泡沫而不提供爆破時間的預測，屬講完等於冇講，猶如賭枱上連開十鋪大，閣下以肯定語氣指不可能永遠開大——所有人都知不會永遠開大，但下一鋪開大還是開小？
世上沒有無緣無故的泡沫，泡沫的成因必定源自一件大事，而市場人士對這大事有不同看法；泡沫=大事+爭拗。套入這方程式，誘發拉菲泡沫的大事是中國經濟起飛，內地人開始選擇高級消費品，爭拗是拉菲一枝獨秀所產生的現象未必合理。
很多人分析拉菲在內地特別成功的原因，是這個中文名改得好，又高貴秀麗，又容易上口，其他一級酒莊的中文名不容易上口，其中 Chateau Latour的中文名是拉圖，音近「拉倒」，對內地人來說不大吉利。拉菲酒莊早一步進入內地市場，已做了許多市場推廣工作，例如最近宣布把 08年年份的酒牌寫上中文「八」字，對準內地人心理。這一切或者可解釋為何拉菲相對其他一級酒莊存在溢價，但現在溢價之大，到了難以解釋的地步。
泡沫形成的時候，好友和淡友各持己見，不過好友較為佔有優勢，是他們較齊心，一致看好，大家一齊買，愈買愈升，愈升愈買。相反，淡友通常不夠齊心，有些只出口，不出手，選擇不參與這場瘋狂遊戲，站在場邊觀看，不加入沽空行列。有很多泡沫根本沒有太多沽空的工具，例如拉菲的淡友要付諸行動不容易。好友用行動，淡友靠把口，這場實力懸殊的比賽勝負相當明顯。
泡沫形成之後會出現一個循環現象，好友賺了錢，令他們對自己的信念更堅定，更加相信自己做的事是對，因為賺錢是最好的證明，會更加興高采烈投入，然後再賺錢，形成一個循環。拉菲價格過去幾年未跌過，好友在金融海嘯也絲毫無損，至今沒有人買拉菲而輸錢，這循環運作良好。要泡沫爆破必須打破這循環，先要找出最弱的一點。
我認為其中的一個弱點是，內地人對紅酒認識開始增加，不再盲目跟風，一窩蜂追捧單一品牌。隨着內地人對紅酒愈來愈有興趣，他們會愈來愈懂得關於紅酒的事物，不過這過程需要很長時間累積。我肯定絕大部分現時飲用或炒賣拉菲的內地人對紅酒認識不深，一是只知道它是身份象徵，一是只知道它的價格不斷上漲，其他的不管。短期內，因為知識導致泡沫爆破的機會不大。
另一個弱點是冒牌貨，一兩蚊的雞蛋有冒牌，幾萬元一瓶的紅酒當然不在話下。我相信 82年拉菲在內地的存量，應該是拉菲酒莊 82年產量的幾倍。不過，這弱點其實跟以上關於紅酒知識有關，內地人根本分不出真假，況且是真是假分別不大，最重要是要花費幾萬元一瓶，開瓶時主人家有面子，飲完之後是假又如何。
我看不到拉菲泡沫短期內爆破，極其量是升幅放緩。反而我認為一個較有可能的現象，是拉菲跟其他一級酒莊價格的溢價逐漸收窄，這並不是指拉菲跌價，而是其他一級酒價格升。升邊隻？睇佢個中文名能否討得內地人歡心。
蔡東豪
現任上市公司精電國際行政總裁，他曾任職投資銀行，在《信報》以筆名原復生撰寫財經專欄，對投資及求知有無限渴求，習慣早上四時起床寫作找樂趣。
Lafite bubbleDecember 23, 2010
Our factory is located in remote areas of Guangdong Province, the local folk than the simple, including government officials, style, but recently I have noticed that Rafi cyclone has swept across China's immediate concern of local, even I thought it was the simplicity of the officials than the Lafite vanguard. Rafi is a French First Growth Chateau Lafite, the Mainland in recent years become the most popular wine brands, Rafi powerful cyclone, the price surge in a short time, the global wine industry look askance. Rafi has been called liquid gold in the Mainland, in addition to showing off, more recently, speculation tools. Mainland media hot topic that can endure high price Rafi? Rafi Tornado is a bubble?
Lafite average increase in prices of five into the last six months, over the past few years, much higher than the increase was well above the global wine market in this period of time increases. Lafite crazy price level, the cards have been to the wine (the Mainland, said the small Rafi) the price is higher than some of the same vintage wine, a winery's main card.Predict the bubble is not easy, the former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan famously argued that, before the bubble burst is not easy to establish the existence of bubbles. Greenspan, of course, his wisdom, there is one thing to see the bubble, forecasting when the bubble burst is another matter; bubbles can exist for a long time, with a grudge can cause the bubble to go bankrupt. Therefore, the bubble that is not provided Lafite cyclone forecast burst time, which is equal to the Nuisance finished speaking, as if the gambling table with a large open ten shops, in recognition of tone that you can not always turn up - not everyone knows will always turn up, but the next roll out big or small open?There is no reason the bubble, the bubble will cause a major event from, and market participants have different views on this event; bubble = major disputes. Sets into this equation, a major event induced by Lafite bubble economic boom in China, the mainland began to choose luxury goods, arguing that the phenomena produced by Lafite thriving not reasonable.Part of Lafite success in the Mainland from it's Chinese name, and noble beauty, but also catchy, the other First Growths of the Chinese name is not catchy, Chateau Latour have the Chinese name , the sounds, "leave it", people on the Mainland is not auspicious. Chateau Lafite step back into the mainland market, has done a lot of marketing efforts, such as the recently announced 08 years on the liquor license to write the Chinese "eight", which aimed at mainland psychology. All this, or explain why there is Chateau Lafite premium relative to other levels, but now a large premium, to the point where is difficult to explain.Bubble, when the BULL and the Bear is in arguement, but the BULL are more dominant, is that they are more united and consistent good, all of you to buy, the more you buy the higher it raise in price. On the contrary, the BEAR are generally not of one mind, some only by the mouth, the BEAR, choose not to participate in this crazy game, standing on the sidelines watching, not to join. Not too many bubbles short of tools, such as the the BEAR of Lafite is not easy to put into action. Friends with action, the BEAR by the mouth of the outcome of this race disparity of power is fairly obvious.Bubble will appear after the formation of a cyclic phenomenon, friends make money, making them more firmly to their beliefs, more believe that they do the right thing, because making money is the best proof that investment will be more excited, and then make money form a loop. Lafite has not dropped the price over the past few years, friends remain in the financial crisis, has no one to buy Lafite and lose money, this cycle has worked well. To bursting of the bubble must break this cycle, we should first find out the weakest point.I think one weakness is that mainlanders began to increase understanding of wine is no longer blindly follow the trend, rush sought after single brand. With more and more mainland people are interested in wine, they will understand more and more things about the wine, but this process takes a long time to accumulate. I am sure most of the present speculative Rafi drinking red wine from the Mainland who do not know the first, only that it is a status symbol, one only know that it's prices are rising, the other matter. The short term, because knowledge is unlikely to lead to a bubble bursting.Another weakness is counterfeit, a couple of mosquito eggs are counterfeit, a few million to mention a bottle of wine, of course. I believe that the 82 stocks in the Mainland Lafite, Chateau Lafite should be 82 times annual production. However, this weakness in fact, with more knowledge about the wine on the mainland people do not tell true and false, true or false is not much difference Moreover, the most important thing is to spend thousands of dollars a bottle, open bottle of pride when the host family, you won't speak up even suspect a fake.I do not see short term Lafite bubble burst, most, is the increase slowed down. But I think a more likely phenomenon, 1st growth price difference amount Lafite will narrow down. This does not mean Lafite decline in value, but the other wine prices rose. Which one is rising? See which Chinese name can please the mainland Chinese.
Tony Tsoi Tong HooListed company is currently Chief Executive Officer of Varitronix International, he worked at investment bank, "Economic Journal," written under the pen name of the original financial columns back to life on investment and have an unlimited desire for knowledge, habits, waking up the morning writing four seasons to find fun.
Our factory is located in remote areas of Guangdong Province, the local folk than the simple, including government officials, style, but recently I have noticed that Rafi cyclone has swept across China's immediate concern of local, even I thought it was the simplicity of the officials than the Lafite vanguard. Rafi is a French First Growth Chateau Lafite, the Mainland in recent years become the most popular wine brands, Rafi powerful cyclone, the price surge in a short time, the global wine industry look askance. Rafi has been called liquid gold in the Mainland, in addition to showing off, more recently, speculation tools. Mainland media hot topic that can endure high price Rafi? Rafi Tornado is a bubble?
Lafite average increase in prices of five into the last six months, over the past few years, much higher than the increase was well above the global wine market in this period of time increases. Lafite crazy price level, the cards have been to the wine (the Mainland, said the small Rafi) the price is higher than some of the same vintage wine, a winery's main card.Predict the bubble is not easy, the former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan famously argued that, before the bubble burst is not easy to establish the existence of bubbles. Greenspan, of course, his wisdom, there is one thing to see the bubble, forecasting when the bubble burst is another matter; bubbles can exist for a long time, with a grudge can cause the bubble to go bankrupt. Therefore, the bubble that is not provided Lafite cyclone forecast burst time, which is equal to the Nuisance finished speaking, as if the gambling table with a large open ten shops, in recognition of tone that you can not always turn up - not everyone knows will always turn up, but the next roll out big or small open?There is no reason the bubble, the bubble will cause a major event from, and market participants have different views on this event; bubble = major disputes. Sets into this equation, a major event induced by Lafite bubble economic boom in China, the mainland began to choose luxury goods, arguing that the phenomena produced by Lafite thriving not reasonable.Part of Lafite success in the Mainland from it's Chinese name, and noble beauty, but also catchy, the other First Growths of the Chinese name is not catchy, Chateau Latour have the Chinese name , the sounds, "leave it", people on the Mainland is not auspicious. Chateau Lafite step back into the mainland market, has done a lot of marketing efforts, such as the recently announced 08 years on the liquor license to write the Chinese "eight", which aimed at mainland psychology. All this, or explain why there is Chateau Lafite premium relative to other levels, but now a large premium, to the point where is difficult to explain.Bubble, when the BULL and the Bear is in arguement, but the BULL are more dominant, is that they are more united and consistent good, all of you to buy, the more you buy the higher it raise in price. On the contrary, the BEAR are generally not of one mind, some only by the mouth, the BEAR, choose not to participate in this crazy game, standing on the sidelines watching, not to join. Not too many bubbles short of tools, such as the the BEAR of Lafite is not easy to put into action. Friends with action, the BEAR by the mouth of the outcome of this race disparity of power is fairly obvious.Bubble will appear after the formation of a cyclic phenomenon, friends make money, making them more firmly to their beliefs, more believe that they do the right thing, because making money is the best proof that investment will be more excited, and then make money form a loop. Lafite has not dropped the price over the past few years, friends remain in the financial crisis, has no one to buy Lafite and lose money, this cycle has worked well. To bursting of the bubble must break this cycle, we should first find out the weakest point.I think one weakness is that mainlanders began to increase understanding of wine is no longer blindly follow the trend, rush sought after single brand. With more and more mainland people are interested in wine, they will understand more and more things about the wine, but this process takes a long time to accumulate. I am sure most of the present speculative Rafi drinking red wine from the Mainland who do not know the first, only that it is a status symbol, one only know that it's prices are rising, the other matter. The short term, because knowledge is unlikely to lead to a bubble bursting.Another weakness is counterfeit, a couple of mosquito eggs are counterfeit, a few million to mention a bottle of wine, of course. I believe that the 82 stocks in the Mainland Lafite, Chateau Lafite should be 82 times annual production. However, this weakness in fact, with more knowledge about the wine on the mainland people do not tell true and false, true or false is not much difference Moreover, the most important thing is to spend thousands of dollars a bottle, open bottle of pride when the host family, you won't speak up even suspect a fake.I do not see short term Lafite bubble burst, most, is the increase slowed down. But I think a more likely phenomenon, 1st growth price difference amount Lafite will narrow down. This does not mean Lafite decline in value, but the other wine prices rose. Which one is rising? See which Chinese name can please the mainland Chinese.
Tony Tsoi Tong HooListed company is currently Chief Executive Officer of Varitronix International, he worked at investment bank, "Economic Journal," written under the pen name of the original financial columns back to life on investment and have an unlimited desire for knowledge, habits, waking up the morning writing four seasons to find fun.
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